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SILICON CHIP www.siliconchip.com.au Publisher & Editor-in-Chief Leo Simpson, B.Bus., FAICD Production Manager Greg Swain, B.Sc.(Hons.) Technical Staff John Clarke, B.E.(Elec.) Ross Tester Jim Rowe, B.A., B.Sc, VK2ZLO Photography Ross Tester Reader Services Ann Morris Advertising Enquiries Glyn Smith Phone (02) 9939 3295 Mobile 0431 792 293 glyn<at>siliconchip.com.au Regular Contributors Brendan Akhurst Rodney Champness, VK3UG Kevin Poulter Mike Sheriff, B.Sc, VK2YFK Stan Swan SILICON CHIP is published 12 times a year by Silicon Chip Publications Pty Ltd. ACN 003 205 490. ABN 49 003 205 490 All material copyright ©. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written consent of the publisher. Printing: Hannanprint, Noble Park, Victoria. Distribution: Network Distribution Company. Subscription rates: $89.50 per year in Australia. For overseas rates, see the subscription page in this issue. Editorial office: Unit 1, 234 Harbord Rd, Brookvale, NSW 2100. Postal address: PO Box 139, Collaroy Beach, NSW 2097. Phone (02) 9939 3295. Fax (02) 9939 2648. E-mail: silicon<at>siliconchip.com.au ISSN 1030-2662 * Recommended and maximum price only. 2  Silicon Chip Publisher’s Letter Energy saving on a large scale is possible Last month’s editorial and this month’s feature on saving energy are just a small indication of the potential for energy conservation that will be employed over the next few years to cut back on greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, it would not surprise us if western nations easily cut back their emissions by 40 or 50% over the next couple of decades. This is likely to happen regardless of edicts from governments and will be largely the result of rising energy prices, particularly those associated with oil and coal. Oil prices will naturally go up as the price to get it out of the ground goes up, in response to increasing demand from the Asian powerhouses, China and India. One does not have to be an oracle to foresee this process unfolding, as there is a very strong precedent – the 1970s oil price shock. This sudden step increase in oil prices, due to action by OPEC, was severe enough to bring on a recession in a number of western countries but also resulted in the breaking of the nexus between GDP and oil consumption. Prior to the oil price jump, countries’ GDP (gross domestic product) and oil consumption had marched ever upwards in lock step but once the relationship was broken, many countries’ GDPs continued to increase without further direct proportional increase in oil consumption. Now we are going to have a more drastic appraisal of energy use and this will be a good thing, regardless of whether you believe the forecasts about global warming or not. So in effect, governments do not have to force their nations’ economies into saving energy and greenhouse emissions by enacting straitjacket regulations; just let the marketplace do it. For example, people will finally conclude that lumbering 4WD vehicles are a silly idea and decide on smaller, more economical vehicles. Many people will also decide that they don’t need two or more vehicles when one will suffice. And once they become fully aware of how wasteful their home appliances are, they will replace them or change the way they use them. For its part, industry and commerce will rapidly change their practices to reduce energy use, no matter how “world’s best practice” efficient they might previously have claimed to have been. From our perspective, energy conservation is good because it does just that – it conserves valuable resources. It stops waste. It also reduces pollution and that must ultimately improve the quality of life for millions of people, particularly those living in the cities. It will be very interesting to see just how all this pans out. Where will the biggest energy savings be made? In mining and industrial production? Transportation? Agriculture? The last one is going to be really interesting because we think the predicted large-scale conversion of crop lands to produce ethanol cannot last for long – it will ultimately make food much more expensive. Not only that, since large-scale agriculture requires such large energy inputs in the form of fuel, fertiliser and pesticides, such factors could rapidly make crops intended for ethanol conversion uneconomic. On the road, we think that electric vehicles will finally become commuters’ first choice; it is far more efficient to generate the required electricity in large power stations than it is to use petrol or diesel fuel in millions of cars. In the home, natural gas is likely to be preferred for space and water heating, as it is far more efficient to burn gas to directly heat water than to rely on large power stations. Ultimately, energy cost will directly affect prices and people will make the logical decisions. Leo Simpson siliconchip.com.au