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SILICON
CHIP
www.siliconchip.com.au
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief
Leo Simpson, B.Bus., FAICD
Production Manager
Greg Swain, B.Sc.(Hons.)
Technical Staff
John Clarke, B.E.(Elec.)
Ross Tester
Jim Rowe, B.A., B.Sc, VK2ZLO
Mauro Grassi, B.Sc.(Hons.)
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Ross Tester
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2 Silicon Chip
Publisher’s Letter
Electrical energy will cost
more in the future
So Australia has now ratified the Kyoto Protocol. This
is a largely symbolic move but it is the start of many
developments on the energy scene. The Federal Government has also promised to set up a carbon trading
scheme by 2010 and following the Bali climate change
conference, Australia will set greenhouse gas emissions targets, after a report by Professor Ross Garnaut.
At this early stage, it looks as though the new Federal
Government is taking a conservative approach but they could well turn around
and set quite ambitious targets.
At the same time, the New South Wales government has just decided to sell
its electricity generating assets to private enterprise and Queensland will probably follow within a few years.
All of these developments will inevitably mean that electricity and other
forms of energy will be more expensive in the future. Regardless of how you
view the prospect of rising energy prices, there will be some positive results.
For a start, carbon emissions trading means all those carbon emissions will have
a price. So private enterprise owners of power stations will look very carefully
at their operations.
They are most unlikely to build any new coal-fired power stations; we at SILICON
CHIP have been advocating this for years. They may well decide to shut down
older less-efficient power stations too. In particular, Victoria’s brown coal power
stations could well get the chop and quite soon. Ultimately, all coal-fired power
stations will be phased out although that will probably take 30 years or more.
All new thermal power stations will be gas-fired and are likely to be much
more efficient, particularly if co-generation is used, ie, waste heat from the gas
turbines is used to run steam-powered alternators. In the longer term, we may
also have nuclear power stations. Interestingly, if most of the electricity generated
in the future comes from gas-fired stations, that will probably mean the end of
“off-peak” power rates as we now know them. This is because, unlike coal-fired
power stations, gas-fired power stations can be brought on line quickly and so
there is less need to provide “spinning reserve” – which is why we presently
have such cheap “off-peak” rates.
With the likely end of “off-peak” rates and generally higher charges for electricity, there will probably be a major move into solar hot water for all homes
and apartment blocks. And so it will go. You will be less likely to use electric
radiators in the future. Instead, home heating will be by gas or reverse-cycle air
conditioning. We will also insulate our homes much better in the future.
We will probably see a lot more wind farms and solar thermal power stations
too. And what about geothermal energy? This shows enormous potential but
at the moment, it is just that: potential. If we are going to get any geothermal
energy within the next decade, the companies concerned will need to make
huge investments. If they succeed, Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions due to
electricity generation could be greatly reduced.
That will leave transportation, industry, agriculture and mining as the big
greenhouse gas emitters. And while much of Australia’s industries may well be
able to make big reductions in emissions in the future, obtaining major cuts for
transportation, agriculture and mining is likely to be far more difficult. Electric
cars are bound to become commonplace (in spite of the doubters!) but even
widespread use will not make a great difference to the total emissions from the
whole of transportation.
All up, we regard theses developments as positive. There will be enormous
investment in energy resources and power generation and at the same time, we
will inevitably become more conservation minded – that can only be good.
Leo Simpson
siliconchip.com.au
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