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SILICON
SILIC
CHIP
www.siliconchip.com.au
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief
Leo Simpson, B.Bus., FAICD
Production Manager
Greg Swain, B.Sc. (Hons.)
Technical Editor
John Clarke, B.E.(Elec.)
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Jim Rowe, B.A., B.Sc
Mauro Grassi, B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D
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ISSN 1030-2662
Publisher’s Letter
EVs & nuclear power – don’t
hold your breath
Before I sat down to write this editorial I reviewed
all the Publishers’ Letters I have written in the past
three years and I have had to conclude that as far
as electric vehicles and nuclear power stations are
concerned, we have made no progress at all in that
time. Practical mass-market electric vehicles are
still as far away as ever and nuclear power, at least
in Australia, is somewhere in the far future, if ever.
Why do I link the two together? First, let’s look at electric vehicles. In the
last three years, just one EV has come to market, the Tesla sports car, but the
company’s future, like all auto manufacturing in the USA, is under a very
dark financial cloud. Less than 100 Tesla EVs have been delivered at the time
of writing (early December) and no other EVs are on the immediate horizon
from other manufacturers. Sure, there is lot of internet comment about EVs
from China but until we see some production examples, it will be just talk.
On the other hand, as I wrote last month, hybrid EVs are likely to become
much more commonplace. If you have a look at the projected fuel economy
figures, such as 2.5l/100km from the planned VW diesel hybrid, these also
raise doubts about the future viability of pure EVs. And the latest diesel engine
developments further cloud the future. Consider the astonishing new Mercedes OMC651 diesel in the new C-class 250 CDI sedan. At just over 2 litres,
it manages to produce 150kW and 500Nm for an overall 5l/100km economy.
This is in a 1650kg sedan, much the same weight as typical big Aussie six
sedans but with more than twice the fuel economy. Just imagine what will
happen to hybrid fuel economy when they incorporate this technology.
The point about future hybrid EV fuel economy is that it makes the whole
economics of EVs powered from the national grid a doubtful proposition.
First, the fuel efficiency of hybrids will challenge the overall efficiency of
our existing power stations and distribution system. There will be less justification for having large centralised power stations to provide the energy
for personal vehicles.
Second, if a majority of vehicles were to be changed over to EVs and be
powered from the grid, Australia would need to at least double its present
generating capacity. But Australia is already heading for severe power shortages and that is without even thinking about EVs. The only way to massively
increase our power generating capacity in the near future is by adopting
nuclear power quite soon. That just isn’t going to happen, unless there is a
dramatic change by our politicians.
Finally, there is another reason why we are unlikely to see large numbers of
EVs on our roads in the next 10-15 years. If it were to happen, both state and
federal governments would have to find a substitute for all the fuel excises
they load onto petrol and diesel. I think they are too happy with the status
quo, in spite of all their posturing about climate change, carbon emissions
and so on. They are not likely to encourage the sale of EVs in this country,
for that reason alone. But in any case, there are not any viable EVs foreseeable at the moment.
The only factor to change this forecast is that petrol and diesel becomes a
great deal more expensive than at the moment. What do you think?
Leo Simpson
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